IT COULD BE A SHORT NIGHT: Depending on the turnout (wink, wink), I am beginning to believe that Kerry will conclude one of the most miserable campaigns for President ever by losing in states he "shouldn't" be early on election night.
Today a new poll showed again that President Bush is dead even with Senator Kerry in New Jersey. This is unbelievable. Al Gore walked away with New Jersey early in the evening in 2000. But if Kerry loses it my prediction is for Bush to almost run the board.
The reasons why Kerry is doing badly in New Jersey is partly not his own doing but his party's. New Jersey has the most corrupt state government in the entire Union. The Democrats are in control of everything - and as could be expected - everything is a mess. Governor McGreevey named his gay lover to the position of "Homeland Security Advisor", the man wasn't even a U.S. Citizen, nor could he even get the clearance needed to attend Federal security briefings. And this is happening in the second most impacted state following 9/11.
BUT weren't those "boys nights out" fun...
The Democratic corruption has left a bad taste, but voters in New Jersey are also realizing that they don't have any state-wide elected officials that they really had a voice in putting there. McGreevey is stepping aside and an "appointed" Governor will run the state for 18 months. One of the Senators bought his way to the Senate. The other was a bait and switch for New Jersey voters.
Look for a voter's rebellion...sick of the corruption, New Jersey voters will choose President Bush as their choice, even some out of protest.
With the 16 electoral votes that go with it, New Jersey will significantly change the electoral college count. And if it goes BUSH early on Tuesday night - a state that BUSH spent almost no money in, Kerry can kiss the White House goodbye.
When you add to the New Jersey equation the fact that Kerry is trailing in Hawaii - which was an 18% win for Gore in 2000 - those combined 20 electoral votes are as big as Ohio. (Another state that President Bush is leading in...)